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April 3rd Auto Racing news ... Bet Nascar at bet-nascar.net

NASCAR: Irwin Tools Night Race (7:43 PM ET, ABC)
2021-08-21

The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series moves on to Thunder Valley for the “Bristol Night Race”, as it is most often called. To honor that tradition, this Saturday night’s event has been tabbed the Irwin Tools Night Race, replacing the longstanding Sharpie 500 name. This event puts short track racing on center stage under the lights at perhaps the circuit’s most exciting track. With 43 cars going around a half-mile oval banked at 36 degrees, the track is the closest thing to bumper cars that NASCAR has to offer. Strangely though, since the wider COT cars have been put in play in 2007, the actual number of wrecks and cars not finishing races here has dropped noticeably. This has drawn the ire of fans, who’ve actually complained of Bristol becoming boring. One driver who isn’t complaining is Kyle Busch, who has won three of the last seven Bristol races, including this one a year ago. He is listed at 6-1 by to win this week, just behind Jimmie Johnson (5-1), the spring winner here.

Since things are so different at Bristol nowadays as compared to the early part of the decade when drivers like Jeff Gordon and Kurt Busch adopted this track as their own, it only makes sense to turn to the post-COT races when it comes to handicapping. In that sense, Kyle Busch is the man to beat. He boasts an average finish of 5.7 in the last seven Bristol races, with two wins and an additional Top 5. One of those trips to Victory Lane came in March. Busch easily paces the field in COT-laps led here as well, with 900. Next in line in that stat is Tony Stewart (10-1), with 525, followed by Kasey Kahne (25-1) with 305. Interestingly, neither of those latter two drivers have won here in that span. Carl Edwards (10-1) is another man to consider, as he has two Bristol, both in this race, in 2007 & 2008. With an average finish of 9.7, those are his only two Top 5’s however. Jimmie Johnson’s 5-1 favorite status is eye opening, since prior to his spring win, he had only averaged a 16.5 finish win one Top 5.

Greg Biffle (12-1) is strong at Bristol when he keeps his nose clean, and he usually contends for the win. His past two efforts on this track ended in fourth-place finishes and with only three poor results in a 15-race career, he's finished 12th or better in every other event. The No. 16 team also has momentum on their side with three consecutive top-fives on oval tracks that included a victory at Pocono a few weeks ago. Jeff Gordon (12-1) rarely has two bad races in a row, so last week's 27th-place finish should be put aside. On short tracks, he's been the class of the field in the past three years. Despite failing to win at Bristol, Martinsville, or Richmond, he's amassed nine top-fives, 12 top-10s, and 14 top-15s in 15 starts. Notably, his only three results outside the top 10 since the start of 2008 all came at Bristol, but his five career victories there more than makes up for the deficit. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. (30-1) is a very interesting case in that he is second among all drivers in average finish in the COT, at 9.3, including two Top 5’s. However, he has rarely been out front, leading just a single lap in those seven races. Denny Hamlin (10-1) and Kevin Harvick join Gordon among the three-time Top 5 finishers here since ’07, ranking just behind the mark of four held by Busch and Biffle. Incidentally, Mark Martin, at 30-1, had the dominant car here a year ago only to succumb late to Busch. Don’t be surprised to see Martin do well Saturday.

Among those you may want to avoid this week are Jamie McMurray (35-1), Juan Montoya (25-1), Matt Kenseth (20-1), and Clint Bowyer (20-1). This spring, Bowyer had a blown engine and finished 40th. His last Bristol top-10 came in fall 2008 and he's had progressively worse results in each passing race. Kenseth used to love coming to Bristol, but has averaged just a 16.7 finish in the COT with a single Top 5. He also is not clicking yet with his new crew chief. McMurray and Montoya both have average COT finishes in the 20’s at Bristol without a single Top 5. Montoya has at least paced 29 laps though, compared to McMurray’s zero.

Qualifying at Bristol used to be more critical, as prior to 2007, the average starting spot of the winner was a low 6.8 in Bristol’s 70 races. Since the COT has been around, the average has jumped to 10.4. Because of the fewer cautions and less trouble to deal with, it has proven more important to run well in practice rather than a qualifying lap. As proof, the average Happy Hour rank of the last seven Bristol winners is 9.6, but more importantly, four of those winners ranked in the Top 5. The winner usually gets out front and is able to stay out trouble. This week’s lineup will be set at 5:40 PM ET on Friday, ironically, right after Happy Hour. The Irwin Tools Night Race green flag is scheduled to wave on Saturday night at around 7:40 PM ET.

It’s had a handful of different names over the years, including Firecracker 400, Pepsi 400 and now Coke Zero 400, but Saturday night’s NASCAR Cup Series race at Daytona is always one of the best on the yearly schedule. This race is how NASCAR honors the 4th of July weekend, and it is well-recognized for fireworks both on and off the track. The combination of night racing, superspeedway action at the circuit’s most famous track, and holiday pageantry make the Coke Zero 400 “must-see TV”. On top of all that, Daytona is always competitive down to the final pass of the start-finish line, and while there are certain favorites who will be out front for much of Saturday’s race, underdogs are certainly capable of winning. Consider Jamie McMurray, winner of February’s Daytona 500, and owner of three straight Top 2 finishes on plate tracks. Oddsmakers show him at an intriguing 16-1 price.

There are a handful of drivers who have consistently set the pace at Daytona and Talladega since the introduction of the COT in NASCAR back in ’07. In fact, there are four drivers that have led over 200 laps in the 11 plate races run in the new cars. Those would include Kyle Busch (310 LL, 13-2 odds), Denny Hamlin (244, 18-1), Tony Stewart (242, 6-1), and Dale Earnhardt, Jr. (201, 10-1). Of the four, Hamlin and Junior haven’t registered a win in that span, while Busch and Stewart have recorded two each. Jamie McMurray is the only other driver with multiple plate wins in that time frame. Furthermore, Stewart, Busch, and McMurray make up the last five winners of this race, with Stewart having accomplished the feat three times, including last July. As you analyze the stats for the plate tracks, note that they can be deceiving, as Busch and Stewart, despite their lofty laps led totals and multiple wins, are tied for just fourth in average finish in plate races since October ’07, with 15.91. A driver is just as likely to score a Top 10 finish in these races as he is to wreck and DNF.

As I just indicated, average finish statistics at Daytona can be misleading. Look no further than the fact that the driver with the lowest average finish in his career here is Clint Bowyer (14-1), with a very modest 17.9. He only owns two Top 5’s without a win in eight career starts. Jeff Gordon (8-1) paces the field with six career DIS wins but has not reached Victory lane at this prestigious venue since February ’05. Therefore, with the favorites being recognized earlier, albeit some with less than favorite odds, are there any other darkhorses to consider? Of course, and I would start with Kurt Busch (8-1), Matt Kenseth (12-1), Kevin Harvick (13-1), and Ryan Newman (22-1), each of whom is highly regarded for his plate-track prowess. In fact, the driver with the best record during the past three years is Kurt Busch. He entered this year's Daytona 500 with a five-race streak of top-10s; better still, four of these were top-fives and that means he was in contention to win on any given weekend. He hasn't won on this track yet, but with three second-place finishes, he's come close. His willingness to push other drivers across the finish line is actually part of his strength, in fact, because it means he is less likely to get into trouble while trying to make an ill-timed pass. Kenseth, Harvick, and Newman have all actually benefitted recently from Busch’s help, each with a recent Daytona 500 win to his credit. Their timing has proven to just be a little better than that of Busch. Juan Montoya, David Ragan, Elliott Sadler, and Kasey Kahne are also capable plate racers.

You may have noticed that I’ve yet to mention the name of Jimmie Johnson, the four-time defending series champion and winner of the series’ last two events. The truth is that Daytona has been far from his best track with just one win, 59 total laps led, and an average finish of 21.2 in 16 career starts. oddsmakers don’t seem to be taking him all that seriously for Saturday, listing him at 10-1 odds, well below his normal standard. In the COT, his average Daytona finish dips to 23.6 and he’s only been out front only five laps in five races. Jeff Gordon’s numbers haven’t been strong either, as he seems to have lost some of the plate track touch that highlighted the early part of his career. In the 11 COT plate races, he has a win, but that is his only top 5 in that span with an average finish of 24.8. Martin Truex has been even worse, with an average finish of 25.0 in those 11 starts and just a single Top 10. Of course, you can’t talk about plate track racing without mentioning the name of Mark Martin, whose disdain for it is well documented. The stats reflect it too. Though qualifying very well (5.9 average start), Martin has been bumped back often, with an average finish of 22.9 in his last eight starts.

It should be a colorful, exciting, and patriotic event as always, as the Sprint Cup Series runs its 18th race of the season, reaching the halfway point. The Green Flag is set to drop on Saturday at 7:49 PM ET on Saturday night. As always, the StatFox NASCAR FoxSheet, Driver Pages, and Matchup Analyzer are here to prepare you for all of the high speed excitement…